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Q1 2025 PRMC Luxe Index
Review & Prospect

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Empowering investors to navigate evolving market trends, respond agilely to short-term fluctuations, capture key opportunities, and chart a new course for luxury growth guided by long-term value.

Luxury in Transition:
Defining the Next Chapter of Growth

In the first quarter of 2025, the global luxury industry operated under mounting pressure amid escalating geopolitical tensions and fluctuations in international trade. The inauguration of the new U.S. administration brought a pronounced shift in policy direction, with unilateral foreign strategies exacerbating geopolitical frictions and aggressive tariff measures further destabilizing global supply chains. Against a backdrop of intensifying external risks, consumer confidence among global high-net-worth individuals (HNWI) and the middle class weakened once again. Coupled with rising operational and sales costs, the luxury sector faced mounting pressures for valuation recalibration. As a result, related indices entered a new phase of volatility, and overall market sentiment turned increasingly cautious.

The PRMC Luxe Index closed the first quarter at 1,626.94 points, declining by 22.44 points (-1.36%) over the period. Its performance lagged behind the MSCI ASIA PACIFIC and EURO STOXX 100 indices but outperformed major global benchmarks such as the MSCI ACWI and S&P 500. At the sub-index level, the Core Luxe Index (+2.05%) recorded a counter-trend increase, the Mass Luxe Index (+0.65%) remained stable, the Ultra Luxe Index (-4.10%) edged lower, while the Experiential Luxe Index (-12.79%) saw a notable retreat.

At the individual stock level, performance divergence among companies became increasingly evident during the quarter. Dassault Aviation, Richemont, and Hermès delivered strong results, with share prices rising notably, whereas Tesla, Burberry, and Rémy Cointreau underperformed relative to the beginning of the year.

Those who discern the trends prosper; those who capitalize on them advance. As the macroeconomic environment continues to evolve, global economic uncertainty is expected to intensify further in the second quarter, potentially leading to greater fluctuations in investor confidence. Index performance is likely to experience periodic volatility as a result. Meanwhile, Hermès has recently announced plans to raise prices across its U.S. portfolio in an effort to offset rising costs through pricing adjustments. As the impact of new tariff policies gradually takes hold, more luxury brands may follow suit by recalibrating their regional pricing strategies.

Looking ahead, whether global economic stability can be restored and whether the Federal Reserve maintains its tightening stance will be pivotal variables influencing luxury sector valuations and capital market sentiment. The ongoing evolution of index performance, shaped by macroeconomic policies and market expectations, remains a critical area for continued close observation.

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CORE LUXE CONSTITUENT ZOOM-IN

Management Innovation Reinforces Market Confidence,
Brand Synergy Drives Sustainable Growth

The Core Luxe Index comprises 30 stocks, with 8 rising and 22 falling.

Leading Performers

1. Lanvin Group Holdings Limited

Lanvin Group Holdings Limited is a global luxury fashion conglomerate headquartered in China, with a portfolio of renowned brands including Lanvin, Wolford, Sergio Rossi, St. John Knits, and Caruso. The Group focuses on the high-end fashion and luxury sectors. In the first quarter of 2025, its share price rose by USD 0.39 to close at USD 2.40, representing a quarterly gain of 19.40%.

On January 16, the Group announced significant leadership and Board-level changes aimed at accelerating growth and driving the execution of its strategic plans. Although full-year 2024 revenue declined by 23% year-on-year to EUR 328 million, the Group remains optimistic about its outlook and plans to release audited financial statements detailing its 2024 performance on April 30, 2025. Furthermore, the Group anticipates achieving sales growth in 2025 through strategic partnerships and the launch of innovative products.

Looking ahead, the Group expects that recovering market demand, brand innovation, and agile market responses will continue to fuel its growth momentum. In the second half of the year, as the strategic plan is further implemented, the Group aims to drive a turnaround in performance and sustain its growth trajectory through further optimization of its product portfolio and enhanced brand equity.

2. Tse Sui Luen Jewellery (International) Limited

Tse Sui Luen Jewellery (International) Limited specializes in high-end jewelry, with operations spanning jewelry design, manufacturing, and retail across Mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, and Malaysia. In the first quarter of 2025, the company's share price increased by USD 0.01 to close at USD 0.09, representing a quarterly gain of 16.43%.

Despite facing pressure from subdued consumer demand in Mainland China and Hong Kong, the company demonstrated resilience. According to its financial results for the first half of fiscal year 2025, sales revenue declined by 5.8% year-on-year to HKD 864 million. However, continued efforts in digital transformation and cost control reduced its net loss from HKD 57 million in the prior-year period to HKD 43.8 million, partially restoring investor confidence.

Looking to the second quarter, Tse Sui Luen Jewellery plans to further advance its digital transformation and refine its cost control strategies. The company is scheduled to announce its full-year fiscal 2025 results on June 18, with market attention focused on the effectiveness of its strategic execution and future growth potential. While short-term market conditions remain challenging, the gradual recovery of consumer markets and the continued implementation of strategic initiatives are expected to support a return to positive sales growth.

[For more insights, please download the full report]

Potential Players

1. Hermès International Société en commandite par actions

Hermès International Société en commandite par actions is engaged in the production of high-end luxury goods, primarily focusing on leather goods, ready-to-wear, and accessories. Known for its exceptional craftsmanship and premium positioning, the brand is highly favored by consumers worldwide. Its renowned products include the famous Birkin and Kelly bags. In the first quarter of 2025, the company’s stock price rose by USD 196.33, closing at USD 2,609.59, representing a quarterly increase of 8.14%.

During the first quarter of 2025, Hermès achieved growth across multiple global markets, with consolidated revenue reaching EUR 4.13 billion, an 8.5% year-on-year increase. The company saw a 17% growth in Japan, 13% in Europe (excluding France), 14% in France, and 11% in the Americas, underscoring the brand’s strong appeal in various regional markets. Although the Greater China region faced short-term challenges, the Asian market (excluding Japan) still achieved a 1% growth, supported by brand loyalty and effective pricing strategies.

Looking ahead, Hermès plans to hold its Annual General Meeting on April 30, 2025, and release its first-half financial report on July 30, 2025. The company will continue to optimize and expand its global retail network to consolidate its market position. In response to the new U.S. tariff policies, Hermès has clearly stated its intention to offset the impact by raising product prices in the U.S. market. With its strong brand power, refined regional operations, and flexible risk management strategies, Hermès is poised to further solidify its leadership in the luxury industry.

2. Brunello Cucinelli S.p.A.

Brunello Cucinelli S.p.A. operates in the high-end luxury fashion sector, renowned for its exquisite cashmere apparel and "quiet luxury" style. The company is committed to offering top-tier fashion products to global consumers. In the first quarter of 2025, its stock price increased by USD 4.62, closing at USD 114.30, marking a quarterly rise of 4.21%.

In the first quarter of 2025, Brunello Cucinelli achieved significant growth, due to its premium positioning and global expansion. Sales in Asia, the Americas, and Europe grew by 11.3%, 10.3%, and 10.1%, respectively, while retail and wholesale channels saw sales growth of 11.9% and 8.2%. Fueled by strong performance in key markets, the company’s quarterly sales reached EUR 341.5 million, an increase of 10.5% year-on-year.

Looking ahead, the company plans to hold its Annual General Meeting on April 28, 2025, and continue the expansion of its Solomeo factory in Italy, with the goal of doubling production capacity by 2033, laying the foundation for long-term growth. Despite global economic uncertainties, the management maintains a strong expectation of around 10% sales growth for 2025 and 2026, reflecting their firm confidence in the brand's value and market expansion strategies.

[For more insights, please download the full report]

ULTRA LUXE CONSTITUENT ZOOM-IN

Robust Guidance Strengthens Market Confidence,
Order Fulfillment Signals Growth Momentum

The Ultra Luxe Index comprises 19 stocks, with 8 rising and 11 falling.

Leading Performers

1. Dassault Aviation société anonyme

Dassault Aviation société anonyme is a leading global manufacturer of private and military aircraft, including the Dassault Falcon private jets and Rafale fighter jets. In Q1 2025, the company’s stock increased by USD 124.92, closing at USD 330.12, a 60.88% quarterly rise.

The company’s full-year 2024 report showed strong performance, delivering 21 Rafale fighter jets and 31 Falcon jets, with an order backlog of EUR 43.22 billion. Net profit reached EUR 924 million, a 33% increase year-on-year, while earnings per share rose to EUR 11.78. The company’s dividend increase also provided confidence to shareholders, further boosting the stock price.

Looking ahead, Dassault Aviation plans to deliver 40 Falcon jets and 25 Rafale jets in the coming months, while focusing on product competitiveness and market leadership. The company’s projected net sales for 2025 are EUR 6.5 billion, and it plans to launch the next-generation Falcon 10X by the end of 2027, capturing a larger share of the high-end business jet market. With strong aviation demand and continued market expansion, the stock price is expected to steadily rise, supported by technological innovation and market growth.

2. Embraer S.A.

Embraer S.A. is a major global player in the design and manufacture of commercial, private, and military aircraft. In Q1 2025, the company’s stock rose by USD 9.52, closing at USD 46.20, reflecting a 25.95% quarterly increase.

In the first quarter of 2025, Embraer showed strong performance, delivering 30 aircraft, a 20% year-on-year increase. Notably, the company delivered 23 executive jets, a 28% rise compared to the previous year. On February 5, Embraer secured a historic USD 7 billion order with Flexjet, including confirmed orders for 182 Phenom and Praetor jets and 30 options, solidifying its leadership in the high-end executive jet market. Additionally, Embraer announced plans to establish a final assembly line for its KC-390 military transport aircraft in Poland, responding to strong demand in the European market.

Looking ahead, Embraer expects to deliver 145-155 executive jets and 77-85 commercial jets, driving projected revenues of USD 7-7.5 billion in 2025. With robust core business performance, large order book, and expansion into new markets, the company is well-positioned for continued growth, with both earnings and stock price expected to rise in the coming months.

[For more insights, please download the full report]

Potential Players

1. Mercedes-Benz Group AG

Mercedes-Benz Group AG, a global leader in luxury automobiles, includes premium brands such as Mercedes-Benz, Mercedes-AMG, and Mercedes-Maybach. In Q1 2025, the company’s stock rose by USD 2.67, closing at USD 58.65, a 4.77% quarterly increase.

However, Mercedes-Benz saw a 7% year-on-year decline in global car and light commercial vehicle sales, totaling 529,200 units, due to soft demand in China and Europe. Sales in China and Germany dropped by 10%, while overall European sales fell by 7%. The electric vehicle segment also declined by 10% to 45,500 units, partly due to the discontinuation of the Smart electric model in Europe. Conversely, the U.S. market showed resilience, with a 1% overall sales increase, driven by strong performances in AMG models, the G-Class SUV, E-Class, and GLC models, which grew 17%, 18%, 32%, and 14%, respectively.

The company will announce Q1 results on April 30, 2025, and hold its annual shareholders meeting on May 7. Projections suggest 2025 full-year revenue will be slightly lower than in 2024, with EBIT margin targets of 6%-8% for the automotive division and 10%-12% for the light commercial vehicle segment. To strengthen its electric vehicle position, Mercedes-Benz plans to launch the CLA electric model in summer and expand into the U.S. and Chinese markets in the second half of the year.

2. Ethan Allen Interiors Inc.

Ethan Allen Interiors Inc. specializes in high-end furniture manufacturing and interior design services, with a vertically integrated domestic manufacturing system and custom design services. The company focuses on providing high-quality furniture and home décor solutions. In Q1 2025, the company’s stock fell by USD 0.04, closing at USD 27.70, a quarterly decrease of 0.14%.

In Q1 of fiscal year 2025, Ethan Allen achieved net sales of USD 154.3 million, a 5.8% year-on-year decline, primarily due to a 6.8% drop in retail orders and a 4.8% decrease in wholesale orders. Despite the revenue pressure, the company maintained a strong gross margin of 60.8% and an operating profit margin of 11.4%, demonstrating solid profitability resilience. During the quarter, the company distributed a total of USD 20.2 million in cash dividends to shareholders (including a regular dividend of USD 0.39 per share and a special dividend of USD 0.40 per share), highlighting its commitment to shareholder returns.

Looking ahead to Q2 of fiscal year 2025, Ethan Allen will continue to advance technology system upgrades and team optimization to enhance operational efficiency and customer experience. With a solid balance sheet, including USD 186.4 million in cash reserves and no debt, the company is well-positioned to withstand risks. As its product lineup is optimized and order trends improve, the company is expected to see marginal performance improvement in Q2, laying a strong foundation for stable growth throughout the year.

[For more insights, please download the full report]

MASS LUXE CONSTITUENT ZOOM-IN

Product Innovation Activates the Growth Curve,
Resilient Demand Supports Valuation Baseline

The Mass Luxe Index comprises 15 stocks, with 4 rising and 11 falling.

Leading Performers

1. Shiseido Company, Limited

Headquartered in Tokyo, Japan, Shiseido Company, Limited is a global leader in the beauty industry, with a portfolio spanning skincare, makeup, fragrance, and beauty devices. The company owns over 20 brands, including Shiseido, Clé de Peau Beauté, and IPSA. In Q1 2025, Shiseido's stock price rose by $1.10, closing at $18.85, marking a 6.19% increase for the quarter.

The stock performance in Q1 was driven by several positive factors. On February 10, the company released its FY2024 financial report, showing a modest 1.8% year-over-year increase in overall revenue, signaling a return to growth. Later that month, London-based investment firm IFP announced the acquisition of a 5.2% stake in Shiseido and expressed interest in potentially advising on the company’s operations and strategy. This news led to a 13.1% single-day surge in Shiseido’s stock on February 19, its largest increase since May 2018. The market generally viewed IFP's investment as strong support for Shiseido's premium strategy, travel retail integration, and organizational reform. On March 28, the company announced the merger of its China and travel retail businesses into a unified “China & Travel Retail Business.” This new structure will enable more collaborative engagement with Chinese consumers, driving synergies in growth and cost efficiency while enhancing flexibility to navigate market fluctuations in Asia.

Looking ahead to Q2, Shiseido is expected to continue its steady recovery. Between April 11 and 14, the company held investor relations meetings for its skincare brand ELIXIR and sunscreen brand ANESSA, revealing key 2024 fiscal year performance: ANESSA’s sales in China surpassed RMB 1 billion, and ELIXIR’s global sales grew by 8%, further validating the effectiveness of its brand portfolio strategy. On April 16, the company announced leadership adjustments in the Americas region, signaling ongoing improvements to its global governance structure. Market expectations are high for the Q1 2025 financial results, which are anticipated to reflect the early impact of brand transformation and channel optimization. Combined with the marginal recovery of consumer confidence in China and steady recovery in travel retail, these factors are expected to bolster market expectations and provide continued support for the stock price in Q2.

2. Luzhou Laojiao Co., Ltd.

Luzhou Laojiao Co., Ltd. is a leading producer of Chinese strong-aroma Baijiu, specializing in the development, production, and sales of premium Baijiu brands such as “Guojiao 1573” and “Luzhou Laojiao.” In Q1 2025, the company’s stock price rose by $0.91, closing at $17.86, a 5.34% increase for the quarter.

On February 24, the company was included in the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology’s first “China Consumer Brand List,” becoming the only strong-aroma Baijiu brand to make the list. This recognition further underscores its industry position and brand value, leading institutional investors to raise their valuation expectations. On the same day, Morgan Stanley raised the company’s target price to $22, maintaining an “Overweight” rating, which provided strong support for the stock price. On March 2, Luzhou Laojiao held a distributor conference, revealing that the Guojiao brand had surpassed RMB 20 billion in annual sales, and the Luzhou Laojiao brand had exceeded RMB 10 billion, with significant growth in core product sales, further boosting market confidence.

Looking ahead to Q2, with the continued recovery of the domestic consumption market, Luzhou Laojiao’s synergistic advantages in brand strength, product quality, and channel management are expected to accelerate. Along with industry policy support and the company’s ongoing investment in digital transformation, Luzhou Laojiao is likely to maintain steady growth, further solidifying its fundamentals and supporting a strong stock price performance.

[For more insights, please download the full report]

Potential Players

1. Wuliangye Yinbin Co., Ltd.

Wuliangye Yinbin Co., Ltd. is a leading Chinese liquor manufacturer specializing in strong-aroma Baijiu. Its flagship product, "Wuliangye," is a key representative of this Baijiu category. In Q1 2025, the company’s stock price dropped by $0.72, closing at $18.09, a 3.85% decline.

In Q1 2025, Wuliangye’s stock was pressured due to industry adjustments and weakening market expectations. Although high-end Baijiu demand increased during the Chinese New Year, overall sales remained moderate, and channel feedback indicated uncertain price stability. Additionally, the high-end Baijiu industry entered a new cycle focused on “de-bubbling and emphasizing value,” prompting caution about industry growth sustainability, affecting investor sentiment and suppressing short-term valuations.

Looking ahead to Q2, with low channel inventories post-Chinese New Year, the company’s "volume control and price support" strategy is expected to stabilize pricing and boost channel confidence. In Q1, Wuliangye restructured its sales system, integrated the "Five Products Division," and set up three major zones, improving channel management. With the recovery of banquet scenarios and better consumer sentiment, end-sales are likely to strengthen. Internal reforms should drive brand momentum and profitability, supporting stock price growth in Q2, backed by valuation correction and strong fundamentals.

2. Davide Campari-Milano N.V.

Davide Campari-Milano N.V. is a global spirits leader, with brands like Aperol, Campari, SKYY, Wild Turkey, and Grand Marnier. In Q1 2025, the company’s stock price dropped by $0.40, closing at $5.86, a 6.42% decrease.

In Q1 2025, the company reported 2.4% year-over-year growth in net sales to €3.07 billion, but adjusted net profit fell 3.7% to €376 million, while unadjusted net profit dropped by 39% to €202 million. This decline was driven by integration costs from the Courvoisier acquisition, U.S. tariff uncertainties, and extreme weather impacts. Management has labeled 2025 as a "transition year," warning of slowed growth and profit margin pressures, which led to a cautious market response and a lower valuation.

Looking ahead to Q2, the company is expected to recover through operational simplification and efficiency improvements. The "Brand House" management system, implemented in early 2025, reorganized global functions and regional structures, enhancing resource allocation and cost control. Core brands like Aperol and Espolòn continue to show strong growth in the Americas and Asia-Pacific regions. If mid-term reforms succeed, the stock price could rebound, driven by operational improvements and performance recovery.

[For more insights, please download the full report]

 

EXP LUXE CONSTITUENT ZOOM-IN

Governance Optimization Aligns with Financial Recovery,
Brand Synergy Sparks Growth Potential

The Experiential Luxe Index comprises 45 stocks, with 13 rising and 32 falling.

Leading Performers

1. Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Limited

Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Limited focuses on the sale of high-end jewelry, including products such as gold, platinum, K-gold, and diamonds, and is the largest publicly listed jeweler in China. In Q1 2025, the company’s stock price rose by $0.26 to $1.13, a 30.08% increase.

In Q1 2025, Chow Tai Fook’s sales grew by 12.4% year-on-year, but structural divergence remained. Same-store sales of jewelry, platinum, and K-gold products in Mainland China dropped by 19.5%, indicating that consumers remained cautious regarding non-essential mid-to-high-end items. In contrast, gold products continued to be favored, with particularly strong performance in the Hong Kong and Macau markets, where same-store sales increased by 16.6%. Additionally, the company maintained an aggressive expansion strategy, adding 153 stores in Q1, bringing the total number of stores to 7,548.

Looking ahead to Q2, despite challenges from consumer pressure and intensified industry competition for certain product lines, the strong demand for gold jewelry will continue to support the company’s revenue. Particularly, the sustained rise in gold prices and rigid demand from wedding-related purchases are expected to keep gold product sales at high levels. At the same time, with the gradual recovery of consumer confidence in mainland China, an improvement in offline foot traffic, and the optimization of the company’s product structure and operational efficiency, profitability is expected to continue improving. With the dual support of fundamental recovery and market sentiment rebound, the stock price has potential for further upward movement.

2. Paradise Co., Ltd.

Paradise Co., Ltd., a leading South Korean casino operator with business in South Korea, the U.S., and Japan, is also involved in real estate leasing and leisure entertainment. In Q1 2025, its stock price rose by $0.90 to $7.44, a 13.70% increase.

The stock price increase in Q1 resulted from strategic reforms and improved management efficiency. The company established a dual CEO structure, with Choi Seong-wook managing external cooperation and Choi Jong-hwan overseeing finance and internal management. Choi Jong-hwan, formerly CFO, brings expertise in strategic planning and sustainable growth. Faced with challenges like rising loan defaults and financial market volatility, the company improved its financial structure by reducing over 200 billion KRW (approx. $149 million) in debt, boosting market confidence.

Looking ahead to Q2, the company will focus on strengthening its core casino business and advancing its diversification strategy. The move from KOSDAQ to KOSPI will enhance its capital market visibility and shareholder returns. With optimized management, a stronger asset structure, and a focus on shareholder value, Paradise has solid fundamentals to continue its upward trajectory.

[For more insights, please download the full report]

Potential Players

1. Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd.

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. provides luxury cruise services, operating well-known brands such as Regent Seven Seas Cruises, Norwegian Cruise Line, and Oceania Cruises. In Q1 2025, the stock declined by $6.77, closing at $18.96, a 26.31% drop for the quarter.

The drop in Q1 was mainly due to market concerns over global macroeconomic uncertainty, slowing consumer spending, and short-term volatility in the travel sector. Although the company saw strong growth in fiscal year 2024, with revenue and profits exceeding expectations, and continued investments in fleet expansion and customer experience upgrades, these external pressures significantly suppressed its market valuation. Despite announcing the resumption of dividend distribution and disclosing insider buying, the market response remained cautious, preventing a substantial recovery in stock prices.

Looking ahead to Q2, Norwegian Cruise Line will continue its global expansion strategy, including the deployment of new luxury ships, optimizing route resource allocation, and deepening partnerships with global travel operators. The company also plans to enhance its acquisition and retention of high-net-worth customers while continuing to drive growth in its premium product lines. As global travel demand begins to marginally recover and industry fundamentals improve, market sentiment is expected to stabilize, and the stock is likely to gradually recover in Q2, supported by solid fundamentals and improved expectations.

2. Accor S.A.

Accor S.A. operates in the global hotel industry, managing brands like Sofitel, Novotel, and Mercure, offering accommodation, dining, and leisure services. In Q1 2025, the stock declined by $3.61, closing at $45.34, a 7.37% drop for the quarter.

The drop in Q1 was due to market concerns over structural challenges amidst global economic fluctuations. Despite achieving €5.606 billion in revenue in 2024, an 11% increase, and steady expansion in key markets like the Middle East and Americas, slower recovery in some regions and hotel exits led to cautious market sentiment on its short-term profitability. Macro uncertainty and seasonal industry factors also pressured the stock.

In Q2, Accor will accelerate the development of its luxury and lifestyle brands, reinforcing the high-end business growth. The "Ennismore" platform will expand rapidly, and the company will optimize asset structure and expedite AccorInvest disposals to improve capital returns. With sustained travel demand recovery and continued growth in RevPAR (10% YoY increase in high-end business in Q1), market confidence is expected to improve.

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MACROECONOMY UPDATES

Global Economic Volatility Intensifies,
Recession Risks Demand Vigilance

Global: A Modest Economic Start, Caution Advised Due to Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Potential Recession Risks

In the first quarter of 2025, the global economy continued its moderate growth trajectory. Inflation levels eased, and the labor market remained robust, supporting consumption momentum in major economies. However, under the persistent pressure of high interest rates, consumer and capital expenditure expansion showed signs of fatigue worldwide. Central banks in various countries have largely exited the rate-cutting cycle, with monetary policies now shifting toward a wait-and-see approach, while fiscal policies have become more cautious. Geopolitical risks and rising trade protectionism have also exacerbated tensions in international trade and supply chains, further straining the global economic outlook. Accordingly, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its global growth forecast for 2025 down from the earlier projection of 3.3% to 2.3%, signaling a potential global recession and urging caution among nations in their economic responses.

[For more insights, please download the full report]

China: Resilient Consumer Confidence and Continued Release of Consumption Potential

Driven by a series of policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption, China’s consumer market demonstrated steady growth in the first quarter of 2025, with consumer confidence gradually recovering. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s Consumer Confidence Index rose to 88.40 in February 2025, marking a 0.90 increase from the previous month and continuing its upward trend for three consecutive months. This reflects growing consumer confidence in future income expectations and the macroeconomic environment. The consistent recovery of this index not only strengthens consumer willingness to spend but also lays the foundation for the rebound in total retail sales. Looking ahead to the second quarter, with the accelerated rollout of long-term special treasury bonds and stimulus policies such as “trade-in for new,” particularly those aimed at durable goods, green smart products, and service-oriented consumption, it is expected that consumer confidence will further improve, becoming a key driver of the recovery in domestic demand and contributing to stable economic progress.

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China: Policy Implementation Drives Consumption Recovery, Emerging Business Models Foster Growth Momentum

In March 2025, China’s total retail sales of consumer goods reached CNY 4.094 trillion, a 5.9% year-on-year increase. Retail sales in categories such as apparel, footwear, and textiles, as well as gold, silver, and jewelry, grew by 3.6% and 5.5%, respectively. For the first quarter of 2025, the cumulative retail sales totaled CNY 12.467 trillion, reflecting a 4.6% year-on-year growth, with apparel and jewelry categories growing by 3.4% and 6.9%, respectively. Meanwhile, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March showed a 0.4% month-on-month decrease and a 0.1% year-on-year decline, with the reduction narrowing significantly and price levels stabilizing. Throughout the first quarter, the government focused on expanding domestic demand and boosting consumption, rolling out multiple policy initiatives. This included the issuance of CNY 300 billion in ultra-long-term special government bonds to support trade-in programs for consumer goods, along with the release of the "Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption," which aimed to systematically enhance residents' purchasing power and willingness through three main strategies: "increase income and reduce burdens," "optimize supply," and "create a favorable environment," thus boosting market confidence. Looking to the second quarter, as these policies continue to take effect, coupled with drivers like cultural IP consumption, the silver economy, and the digital economy, China’s domestic consumption market is expected to maintain a moderate expansion trend, further solidifying its position as a key driver of economic growth.

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PRIMARY INDEX REVIEW & PROSPECT

Rally Stagnates During the Quarter,
Indices Retreat After Reaching Highs

In the first quarter of 2025, the PRMC Luxe Index closed at 1,626.94 points, a decline of 22.44 points or 1.36% for the quarter. Early in the year, the index saw a modest increase starting from mid-January, buoyed by optimistic global market sentiment and signals of potential interest rate cuts from Federal Reserve officials. However, in March, the index plummeted by 159.34 points (-8.92%), not only erasing the previous gains but also ending the current phase of the market rebound.

This adjustment in the index was primarily driven by a confluence of several negative factors. On one hand, major luxury groups such as LVMH reported negative revenue growth for the full year of 2024, alongside a significant decline in profitability. Combined with a sluggish recovery in the Chinese market, these factors undermined investor confidence in the prospects for high-end consumption. On the other hand, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March exceeded expectations, while the Federal Reserve maintained a cautious stance in its March policy meeting, with rate cut expectations not yet materializing. Furthermore, the reintroduction of tariff measures under the Trump administration, along with the escalating Red Sea crisis and the ongoing Ukraine conflict, continued to disrupt global supply chains, further dampening investor risk appetite.

Looking ahead to the second quarter of 2025, the luxury goods index is expected to enter a new phase of adjustment. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell recently stated that they would "patiently assess the economic impact of the Trump administration’s policies," and the future path of interest rates remains uncertain in the short term. Additionally, with tariff costs shifting to final consumers, the U.S. luxury goods market is likely to experience negative growth. The Chinese market is expected to maintain a stable, albeit slow, recovery, while Europe is constrained by high interest rates and weak external demand, limiting the pace of domestic recovery. Overall, macroeconomic disruptions have not been fully resolved, and the foundation for a rebound in the luxury goods index remains unstable, with limited upside potential in the short term.

 

SECONDARY INDEX REVIEW & PROSPECT

Distinct Trend Divergence:
Core and Mass Luxe Stable, Ultra Luxe Weakens, Experiential Luxe Declining

The Core Luxe Index closed at 1,900.56 points in the first quarter, marking an increase of 38.17 points, or 2.05%, making it the best-performing secondary index of the quarter. At the beginning of the quarter, the Core Luxe sector continued the recovery trend seen in Q4 2024, with restored market confidence driving steady gains. The index briefly surpassed the 2,200-point threshold in mid-February. However, with the Trump administration reactivating tariff policies and rising investor concerns over the Federal Reserve's policy direction and macroeconomic outlook, market risk appetite gradually declined. At the same time, the 2024 financial reports of major fine luxury brands, such as LVMH, generally underperformed expectations, putting pressure on valuations. In March, the index fluctuated and ultimately retraced to around the 1,900-point level. Looking ahead to Q2, amid continued external policy uncertainty and a slowing pace of global consumer recovery, the Core Luxe sector may face valuation re-evaluation pressure, with the index expected to maintain a volatile trend.

The Ultra Luxe Index closed at 1,741.89 points in Q1 2025, a decline of 74.51 points or 4.10% for the quarter. Despite overall pressure, the sector maintained a steady trend at the beginning of the quarter, before experiencing a slight pullback toward the end due to macroeconomic disturbances. In the face of external challenges such as high interest rates and geopolitical uncertainties, ultra-high-end luxury brands, with their strong high-net-worth client base and substantial order reserves, have helped stabilize market expectations to some extent. Additionally, niche markets like private aviation and superyachts have continued to recover, providing structural support to the index. Looking ahead to Q2, with global high-end consumption demand gradually recovering and new product cycles from certain brands driving momentum, the Ultra Luxe Index is likely to maintain a range-bound trend, with potential for stabilization and recovery in the near term.

The Mass Luxe Index closed at 937.18 points, up 6.07 points or 0.65% for the quarter. Overall, the index fluctuated within a range around 950 points, demonstrating relative stability. The Mass Luxe sector, covering categories such as alcoholic beverages and fragrances, continues to face pressure from weak demand and constraints on middle-class consumption. Since mid-2024, the index has seen a significant pullback, with current valuations at historical lows, making the sector less sensitive to policy changes. Looking ahead to Q2, while the short-term consumption environment is unlikely to improve significantly and the core constraints remain, the Mass Luxe Index is expected to maintain a narrow range of fluctuations at low levels, with market sentiment remaining cautious.

The Experiential Luxe Index closed at 1,251.34 points, down 183.58 points or 12.79%, marking the largest decline among secondary indices in Q1. The Experiential Luxe sector had previously benefited from the global tourism recovery and the deepening trend of experiential consumption, showing strong performance. However, since February 2025, rising global geopolitical tensions, coupled with escalating international trade friction, particularly affecting shipping and cross-border travel, have had a direct negative impact on high-experience service industries such as hotels and cruises. This has significantly dampened investor sentiment and triggered a sharp decline in the index. Looking ahead to Q2, although market confidence will take time to recover, the Experiential Luxe Index is expected to enter a period of stabilization and gradual recovery, supported by the ongoing recovery in experiential consumption.

Empowering investors to navigate evolving market trends, respond agilely to short-term fluctuations, capture key opportunities, and chart a new course for luxury growth guided by long-term value.

Luxury in Transition:
Defining the Next Chapter of Growth

In the first quarter of 2025, the global luxury industry operated under mounting pressure amid escalating geopolitical tensions and fluctuations in international trade. The inauguration of the new U.S. administration brought a pronounced shift in policy direction, with unilateral foreign strategies exacerbating geopolitical frictions and aggressive tariff measures further destabilizing global supply chains. Against a backdrop of intensifying external risks, consumer confidence among global high-net-worth individuals (HNWI) and the middle class weakened once again. Coupled with rising operational and sales costs, the luxury sector faced mounting pressures for valuation recalibration. As a result, related indices entered a new phase of volatility, and overall market sentiment turned increasingly cautious.

The PRMC Luxe Index closed the first quarter at 1,626.94 points, declining by 22.44 points (-1.36%) over the period. Its performance lagged behind the MSCI ASIA PACIFIC and EURO STOXX 100 indices but outperformed major global benchmarks such as the MSCI ACWI and S&P 500. At the sub-index level, the Core Luxe Index (+2.05%) recorded a counter-trend increase, the Mass Luxe Index (+0.65%) remained stable, the Ultra Luxe Index (-4.10%) edged lower, while the Experiential Luxe Index (-12.79%) saw a notable retreat.

At the individual stock level, performance divergence among companies became increasingly evident during the quarter. Dassault Aviation, Richemont, and Hermès delivered strong results, with share prices rising notably, whereas Tesla, Burberry, and Rémy Cointreau underperformed relative to the beginning of the year.

Those who discern the trends prosper; those who capitalize on them advance. As the macroeconomic environment continues to evolve, global economic uncertainty is expected to intensify further in the second quarter, potentially leading to greater fluctuations in investor confidence. Index performance is likely to experience periodic volatility as a result. Meanwhile, Hermès has recently announced plans to raise prices across its U.S. portfolio in an effort to offset rising costs through pricing adjustments. As the impact of new tariff policies gradually takes hold, more luxury brands may follow suit by recalibrating their regional pricing strategies.

Looking ahead, whether global economic stability can be restored and whether the Federal Reserve maintains its tightening stance will be pivotal variables influencing luxury sector valuations and capital market sentiment. The ongoing evolution of index performance, shaped by macroeconomic policies and market expectations, remains a critical area for continued close observation.

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Technology Introduction

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  • Customization of Medical Devices, Prosthetics and Prostheses: Customized manufacturing can be carried out, designed and manufactured according to the individual needs of patients, and more suitable solutions can be provided
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Related Giant

Related Technology Trend

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Empowering investors to navigate evolving market trends, respond agilely to short-term fluctuations, capture key opportunities, and chart a new course for luxury growth guided by long-term value.

Luxury in Transition:
Defining the Next Chapter of Growth

In the first quarter of 2025, the global luxury industry operated under mounting pressure amid escalating geopolitical tensions and fluctuations in international trade. The inauguration of the new U.S. administration brought a pronounced shift in policy direction, with unilateral foreign strategies exacerbating geopolitical frictions and aggressive tariff measures further destabilizing global supply chains. Against a backdrop of intensifying external risks, consumer confidence among global high-net-worth individuals (HNWI) and the middle class weakened once again. Coupled with rising operational and sales costs, the luxury sector faced mounting pressures for valuation recalibration. As a result, related indices entered a new phase of volatility, and overall market sentiment turned increasingly cautious.

The PRMC Luxe Index closed the first quarter at 1,626.94 points, declining by 22.44 points (-1.36%) over the period. Its performance lagged behind the MSCI ASIA PACIFIC and EURO STOXX 100 indices but outperformed major global benchmarks such as the MSCI ACWI and S&P 500. At the sub-index level, the Core Luxe Index (+2.05%) recorded a counter-trend increase, the Mass Luxe Index (+0.65%) remained stable, the Ultra Luxe Index (-4.10%) edged lower, while the Experiential Luxe Index (-12.79%) saw a notable retreat.

At the individual stock level, performance divergence among companies became increasingly evident during the quarter. Dassault Aviation, Richemont, and Hermès delivered strong results, with share prices rising notably, whereas Tesla, Burberry, and Rémy Cointreau underperformed relative to the beginning of the year.

Those who discern the trends prosper; those who capitalize on them advance. As the macroeconomic environment continues to evolve, global economic uncertainty is expected to intensify further in the second quarter, potentially leading to greater fluctuations in investor confidence. Index performance is likely to experience periodic volatility as a result. Meanwhile, Hermès has recently announced plans to raise prices across its U.S. portfolio in an effort to offset rising costs through pricing adjustments. As the impact of new tariff policies gradually takes hold, more luxury brands may follow suit by recalibrating their regional pricing strategies.

Looking ahead, whether global economic stability can be restored and whether the Federal Reserve maintains its tightening stance will be pivotal variables influencing luxury sector valuations and capital market sentiment. The ongoing evolution of index performance, shaped by macroeconomic policies and market expectations, remains a critical area for continued close observation.