Q3 2025 PRMC Forward Mobility Index
Review & Prospect

Dec 18, 2025

Track the latest developments and market trends in the global automotive mobility industry, and gain insights into how intelligent and connected technologies are driving the evolution of the sector.

Trade Easing Boosts Confidence, Regional Divergence Becomes More Pronounced

[Primary Index Performance Review]

The PRMC Forward Mobility Index closed at 1,585.83 points in Q3 2025, rising by 183.78 points (+13.11%) during the quarter. The performance was weaker compared to the STAR & CHINEXT 50 (+65.32%) and HANG SENG TECH (+21.93%), but better than the NASDAQ COMPOSITE (+11.24%) and STOXX EUROPE 600 TECH (-0.49%).

[Secondary Index Performance Review]

The PRMC Forward Mobility Supply Index closed at 1,280.75 points in Q3 2025, increasing by 151.68 points (+13.43%) during the quarter;

The PRMC Forward Mobility Manufacturing Index closed at 1,448.97 points in Q3 2025, rising by 163.34 points (+12.70%) during the quarter;

The PRMC Forward Mobility Service Index closed at 2,156.32 points in Q3 2025, up by 259.46 points (+13.68%) during the quarter.

[China Automotive Industry Review]

In the third quarter of 2025, with the central and local governments rolling out new "trade-in" policies, coupled with coordinated nationwide auto exhibitions and the intensive launch of new models, the overall activity in the automotive market significantly picked up, and the industry continued its steady growth trajectory, with new industry drivers accelerating their release.

By the end of the first three quarters, China’s automotive production and sales reached 24.33 million and 24.36 million units, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 13.30% and 12.90%. The growth rates in production and sales were 0.8 and 1.5 percentage points higher compared to the first half of the year, indicating that the automotive industry’s sentiment continued to improve, with demand-side recovery and supply-side optimization forming a positive resonance.

Exports also maintained strong growth. In the first three quarters of 2025, China’s total automotive exports reached 4.95 million units, growing by 14.80% year-on-year. Among these, new energy vehicles (NEVs) accounted for approximately 1.758 million units in exports, a remarkable year-on-year increase of 89.40%, making them the core driver of automotive export structure upgrades and enhancing global competitiveness.

[Macroeconomic Review and Outlook]

In the third quarter of 2025, the global automotive industry gradually regained confidence, supported by a calming of geopolitical tensions and improvements in trade policies. The stabilization of the Middle East situation and the positive shift in U.S.-China trade relations—marked by the resumption of high-level consultations and the signing of a new trade framework agreement—effectively alleviated supply chain uncertainties and reduced upward pressures on raw material and logistics costs, providing a more predictable external environment for the global automotive industry.

US market continued its weak trend, with high tariff policies and declining consumer confidence continuing to suppress end demand. The uncertainty surrounding tariffs disrupted vehicle and component import costs, leading to structural inventory accumulation among enterprises, and mainstream automakers have been slowing their production pace.

Europe market is undergoing structural adjustments, with overall demand recovery remaining sluggish. Ongoing tariff disputes continue to hinder cross-border supply chain efficiency, and the combination of weak manufacturing and high financing costs is squeezing corporate profit margins. While inflation easing has provided some relief for household consumption, consumer confidence has not significantly recovered, and the automotive market’s recovery pace remains slow.

China market continued its steady growth trajectory, becoming a major pillar for the global automotive industry. Policy measures such as "trade-in" programs, new energy vehicle subsidies for rural areas, and continued consumption incentives have been effective, further supported by domestic brands launching intelligent electric vehicles, leading to a clear market structure optimization. Although the consumer side remains influenced by localized price wars and the pace of confidence recovery, overall demand remains resilient.

Looking ahead to the fourth quarter of 2025, the global automotive market is expected to maintain moderate growth amidst a complex macroeconomic environment, though regional differentiation will become more pronounced. Market performance will largely depend on the policy direction and consumption recovery pace in each economy.

In US, the outlook for automotive market recovery remains pressured. Although the Federal Reserve is expected to continue lowering interest rates to stimulate consumption and business financing, persistent inflation, the marginal weakness of the labor market, and uncertain tariff policies will continue to constrain consumer confidence and business decisions.

In Europe, amid economic slowdown and structural transformation, the automotive market will continue to face both weak demand and supply pressures. The European Central Bank’s marginally accommodative monetary policy is expected to provide some support to credit and consumption, but the transmission of interest rate changes to the real economy remains delayed. High financing costs, weak corporate investment, and low consumer confidence will slow the pace of market recovery.

In China, the dual role of policy support and market momentum will continue to sustain the steady operation of the automotive market. It is expected that the government will further increase structural stimulus measures in Q4 to strengthen consumption recovery. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is likely to increase further, driving both the expansion of the industrial supply chain and export growth, becoming the dual engines for both domestic and foreign demand.